TODAY▲AL score up (still Moderate)▲ZN back 1.51%→2.01%▲CU score up (still High)vs prior day
The Main Tension
The one thing to know todayRisk level HighInventory-dislocation squeeze
The world isn't short of copper.
The LME is short of warrants.
Registered warrants have fallen to 91.0kt in a month (-54.3%), with the cancellation ratio pinned near 57%. Over the same stretch COMEX stocks climbed to a record 728kt and another 138kt sits off-warrant in LME sheds — the copper exists; it just isn't deliverable. Cash–3M has run from +102 to +162 (1.14%) in a week, and the Holdings report shows no one above 50% — which means no lending-guidance cap. This backwardation is unanchored: no rule puts a ceiling on it (contrast aluminium, where a 50–80% holder's lending obligation pins the spread). The import window is shut and exports are blocked by duty; China's two exchanges hold 86kt combined — less than the LME's own warrant pool. The nearest third-Wednesday delivery date is 4 trading days away.
Delivery countdown: 4 tdBackwardation: 1.14% and wideningConcentration: no holder ≥50% (uncapped)Arb channels: shut both ways
Registered warrants (deliverable)
91.0 kt
1M -54.3%21d #2 low · cancellations 57.1%
Cash–3M
+162 $/t
a week ago +10220d #2 high
To nearest 3rd Wednesday
4 trading days
front-month OI 39,542 lots ≈ 10.9× warrants
Six-metal risk map
y risk level · x cancelled% · bubble = front-month OI ÷ warrants
Where did the copper go (kt)
Warrants keep draining while off-warrant stock (T-3) builds — metal hasn't left the sheds, it's just been de-warranted
LME on-warrantLME off-warrant (T-3)
Two markets, two directions (indexed, Jul 10 = 100)
LME vs COMEX total stocks — dislocation, not shortage
LME totalCOMEX total
What Changed This Week
Marginal moves over the past five sessionsAluminium ALConcentration step-up▲
40-50%→90%+
Now inside the lending-guidance zone
Zinc ZNA step from export parity◆
-1,024 yuan/t
If it opens, metal flows back — the natural brake
Copper CUBackwardation accelerating▲
+102.4→+162.2 $/t
The slope matters more than the level
Zinc ZNBackwardation accelerating▲
+56.2→+77.2 $/t
The slope matters more than the level
Risk Heat — Six Metals
Click a tile to open the metal detailScore heat — where risk is buildinglowhigh
Copper CUΔ1w ▼
High
Warrant drain
Cancel 57.1%C-3M +1.14%20d #2 highCover 10.9×Conc 30-40%
Aluminium ALΔ1w ▲
Moderate
Capped concentration
Cancel 2.8%C-3M +0.14%Cover 6.3×Conc 90%+
Zinc ZNΔ1w ―
Moderate
Next in line
Cancel 21.4%C-3M +2.01%21d highCover 9.7×Conc 40-50%
Tin SNΔ1w ▼
Moderate
Small-base risk
Cancel 14.4%C-3M -0.48%Cover 3.8×Conc 30-40%
Lead PBΔ1w ▼
Low
Loose
Cancel 13.4%C-3M -2.28%Cover 1.4×Conc none
Nickel NIΔ1w ―
Low
Loose · window review
Cancel 3.2%C-3M -1.24%Cover 0.6×Conc none
Cross-Market & Arb Windows
Validate the inputs before calling a relief valve openConfirmed open0 / 6Only independently checked windows count
Same-day coverage5 / 6Uncovered metals remain single-source
Material conflicts2Stale inputs or cost-model conflict
Closest to parityLead PB +17±250 yuan/t treated as noise
Import / export window matrix
The track preserves SHFE/LME geometry; P&L, window state and data quality are separated for clarity
Metal & qualitySHFE/LME positionImport P&L
Export 5.70Now 7.62Import 7.67
-870yuan/t · Import closed
Export 6.06Now 7.69Import 7.67
+983yuan/t · Positive, unconfirmed
Export 5.76Now 8.37Import 8.36
+17yuan/t · Near parity
Export 5.55Now 7.31Import 8.33
-3,372yuan/t · Import closed
Export 6.59Now 6.86Import 8.00
-4,292yuan/t · Import closed
Export 6.03Now 7.63Import 7.70
-889yuan/t · Import closed
Import P&L is checked against an independent same-day industry benchmark; raw readings remain in the audit trail. Export P&L remains a BW model estimate; external sources and parameters are not disclosed in the public edition.
DATA CHECKSame-day cross-checkRaw values retained for audit; external sources not disclosed
+5,901.0 → -870 yuan/t
-6,771.0The upstream price was unchanged for 22 report dates; the raw reading is downgraded.
-14,413.0 → +983 yuan/t
+15,396.0An independent industry benchmark conflicts with the original cost model; no signal until reconciled.
Copper · import P&L (yuan/t, 15:00)
Single-source series; persistently negative = the import relief valve is closed
-889yuan/t
Nickel · import P&L (yuan/t, 15:00)
Dashed = raw series; final point = same-day cross-check
-870yuan/t
Detail table · stocks & window P&L▾
| Metal | LME stock | SHFE stock* | COMEX stock | SHFE receipts | Import P&L | Export P&L est. | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper CU | 212.1 kt | 69.3 kt (-276) | 728.2 kt | 24,131 (+953) | -889 Single source | -22,790 | LME draining while COMEX builds — dislocation persists; the import window is nearly open, which would drain Asian sheds further |
| Aluminium AL | 251.7 kt | 448.7 kt (-6,350) | 1.6 kt | 303,168 (-1,023) | -3,372 Cross-checked | -5,822 | Window firmly shut; heavy SHFE stocks, onshore/offshore structures diverging |
| Zinc ZN | 95.3 kt | 151.5 kt (+963) | 3.0 kt | 110,721 (+396) | -4,292 Cross-checked | -1,024 near | A step from export parity: if it opens, Chinese metal flows back offshore via Southeast Asia |
| Tin SN | 5.6 kt | 5.3 kt (-170) | — | — | +983 Model conflict | -90,355 | An independent benchmark is near parity but conflicts with the original cost model; no signal yet |
| Lead PB | 417.1 kt | 71.6 kt (+6,437) | 1.4 kt | 61,228 (+301) | +17 Near parity | -4,984 | Inside the noise band; treated as near parity, not a confirmed opening |
| Nickel NI | 264.7 kt | 112.0 kt (+1,882) | — | 100,769 (-158) | -870 Stale input | -32,517 | The prior positive reading used a stale input; the same-day cross-check leaves the window closed |
* SHFE stocks are weekly (31-Jul-26); COMEX copper read as reported; import P&L is the 15:00 snapshot.
Metal by Metal
Click any metal to expand / collapse
Copper CURisk level High
Cancel 57.1%C-3M +162Cover 10.9×
▼ expand
“What do you deliver?” — front-month exposure runs ~11× the deliverable pool, 4 trading days out
Closing stock
212.1 kt
-6.2k d/d · 1w -13.1%
On-warrant stock
91.0 kt
1M -54.3%21d #2 low
Cancellation ratio
57.1%
1w -1.3pp
Cash–3M
+162.2
back 1.14% · 1w +102.420d #2 high
Off-warrant (T-3)
138.4 kt
> on-warrant · relief buffer
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 39,542 lots ≈ 989kt — 10.9× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-10)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
12
S
2
L
11
S
2
L
2
S
3
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-10)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
×1
Cash exposure
×1
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holders present in the 30-50% bands
Structure is delivery-sensitive; the margins to watch are cancellations, concentration and off-warrant flows. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on copperINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 30-40% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Aluminium ALRisk level Moderate lending guidance
Cancel 2.8%C-3M +5Cover 6.3×
▼ expand
Concentrated but capped by lending guidance; the inventory side stays loose
Closing stock
251.7 kt
-3.2k d/d · 1w -4.2%
On-warrant stock
244.6 kt
1M -0.7%21d low
Cancellation ratio
2.8%
1w -3.8pp
Cash–3M
+4.6
back 0.14% · 1w +18.2
Off-warrant (T-3)
85.5 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 61,664 lots ≈ 1,542kt — 6.3× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-10)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
5
S
31
L
4
S
3
L
3
S
22
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-10)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
×1
Tom exposure
×1
Cash exposure
×1
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance active
If concentration and the inventory side ever align, the picture changes quickly. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on aluminiumINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 90%+ band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Zinc ZNRisk level Moderate
Cancel 21.4%C-3M +77Cover 9.7×
▼ expand
The deepest backwardation of the six (2.0%); stocks and concentration tightening together
Closing stock
95.3 kt
-1.8k d/d · 1w -4.5%
On-warrant stock
74.9 kt
1M -14.3%
Cancellation ratio
21.4%
1w -4.6pp
Cash–3M
+77.2
back 2.01% · 1w +56.221d high
Off-warrant (T-3)
21.0 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 29,189 lots ≈ 730kt — 9.7× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-10)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
4
S
21
L
3
S
31
L
1
S
4
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-10)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
×2
Cash exposure
×1×1
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holders present in the 30-50% bands
In the escalation-watch zone; concentration and cancellation momentum will decide direction. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on zincINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 40-50% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Tin SNRisk level Moderate
Cancel 14.4%C-3M -268Cover 3.8×
▼ expand
Very thin absolute stock (5.6kt); structure is sensitive to any single participant
Closing stock
5.6 kt
-0.2k d/d · 1w -6.2%
On-warrant stock
4.8 kt
1M -26.6%20d low
Cancellation ratio
14.4%
1w +1.9pp
Cash–3M
-268.0
contango 0.48% · 1w -290.0
Off-warrant (T-3)
1.5 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 3,659 lots ≈ 18kt — 3.8× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-10)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
11
S
L
21
S
22
L
211
S
52
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-10)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
×1
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holders present in the 30-50% bands
In the escalation-watch zone; concentration and cancellation momentum will decide direction. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on tinINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 30-40% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Lead PBRisk level Low
Cancel 13.4%C-3M -42Cover 1.4×
▼ expand
Loose on both ends
Closing stock
417.1 kt
-4.7k d/d · 1w -4.9%
On-warrant stock
361.0 kt
1M +32.1%
Cancellation ratio
13.4%
1w -3.7pp
Cash–3M
-42.5
contango 2.28% · 1w -44.3
Off-warrant (T-3)
45.3 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 20,633 lots ≈ 516kt — 1.4× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-10)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
22
S
41
L
11
S
51
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-10)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
No significant concentration in the Holdings report
Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on leadINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL
Nickel NIRisk level Low
Cancel 3.2%C-3M -207Cover 0.6×
▼ expand
Loose across the board; the import window remains closed after cross-checking
Closing stock
264.7 kt
+0.3k d/d · 1w -0.0%
On-warrant stock
256.2 kt
1M -0.7%
Cancellation ratio
3.2%
1w -0.2pp
Cash–3M
-206.9
contango 1.24% · 1w -197.8
Off-warrant (T-3)
101.9 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 25,619 lots ≈ 154kt — 0.6× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-10)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
121
S
41
L
11
S
41
L
S
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-10)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
No significant concentration in the Holdings report
Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on nickelINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL
Methodology & Data Notes
Squeeze-risk score (0–100, rule-based)
The score aggregates five structural dimensions — concentration, coverage, momentum and spread confirmation among them — under fixed rules; fully rule-based and auditable. Dimension definitions, weights and trigger levels are internal-edition content; the public edition shows risk levels (Low/Moderate/High/Extreme) and direction only.
LME lending guidance
| Position* | Max tom-next lending premium |
|---|---|
| 50–79.99% | 0.5% of prior cash price |
| 80–89.99% | 0.25% of prior cash price |
| 90–100% | At level (no premium) |
* Warrants + Tom + Cash ÷ live warrants. Tightness without a ≥50% holder has no such cap on the spread.
Data chain & lags
LME official reports captured daily at 06:30 SGT into structured factor tables. Stocks/prices are T-1; banding and holdings are published by the LME on a T+2 basis; off-warrant stock is a T-3 voluntary disclosure and a floor estimate.
Data quality
This issue's sentinels: 1 missing OI rows backfilled from the prior snapshot (dashed in charts), 6 low-confidence banding rows flagged, 1 curve outliers excluded, 1 stock row(s) dropped on internal-consistency checks. A stock row that fails internal consistency (on-warrant + cancelled must equal total) is treated as an upstream OCR column shift and dropped in full for that date. Nothing unreliable is silently kept.
Disclaimer
This report is market-structure research for reference only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation; you act on it at your own risk. Built on official LME publications (T+2 lag); contains no real-time prices; no warranty is given as to accuracy, completeness or timeliness.
Copyright & redistribution
© 2026 BW Research. All rights reserved. The analytical framework, scoring system, charts and text are original works of BW Research protected by copyright. No reproduction, excerpting, redistribution, mirroring or commercial use without prior written permission; cite metalsgowhere.com when referencing. LME data remains the property of The London Metal Exchange.
INTERNAL EDITION · Beyond this public edition, the daily adds
Desk view
Same-day desk read and risk flags on all six metals
Strategy playbook
A full direction / structure / execution framework, risk-tiered
Score decomposition
Item-by-item breakdown of each 0-100 score, with watch levels
Band tracking
Daily migration across Banding / Holdings bands, with persistence
Data sentinels
Full transparency on OCR repairs, outliers and methodology notes
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Metals Go Where · 2026-08-13 · Built on official LME publications · Research only; not investment advice · Silver Squeeze Monitor (weekly, CN) → · © 2026 BW Research — all rights reserved; no redistribution without permission
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