TODAY▲CU on-warrant -10.0%▲CU cancels 50.5%→55.2%▲PB back -2.19%→-1.84%vs prior day
The Main Tension
The one thing to know todayRisk level HighInventory-dislocation squeeze
The world isn't short of copper.
The LME is short of warrants.
Registered warrants have fallen to 107.0kt in a month (-9.8%), with the cancellation ratio pinned near 55%. Over the same stretch COMEX stocks climbed to a record 744kt and another 127kt sits off-warrant in LME sheds — the copper exists; it just isn't deliverable. Cash–3M has run from +436 to +89 (0.62%) in a week, and the Holdings report shows no one above 50% — which means no lending-guidance cap. This backwardation is unanchored: no rule puts a ceiling on it (contrast aluminium, where a 50–80% holder's lending obligation pins the spread). The import window is shut and exports are blocked by duty; China's two exchanges hold 108kt combined — less than the LME's own warrant pool. M1 (2026-09-16) is 16 trading days away.
M1 countdown: 16 tdBackwardation: 0.62%Concentration: no holder ≥50% (uncapped)Arb channels: shut both ways
Registered warrants (deliverable)
107.0 kt
1M -9.8% · cancellations 55.2%
Cash–3M
+89 $/t
a week ago +436
To M1 (09-16)
16 trading days
cumulative OI proxy 76,714 lots ≈ 17.9× on-warrant
Six-metal risk map
y risk level · x cancelled% · bubble = cumulative public OI through M1 ÷ on-warrant
Where did the copper go (kt)
Warrants keep draining while off-warrant stock (T-3) builds — metal hasn't left the sheds, it's just been de-warranted
LME on-warrantLME off-warrant (T-3)
Two markets, two directions (indexed, Jul 10 = 100)
LME vs COMEX total stocks — dislocation, not shortage
LME totalCOMEX total
What Changed This Week
Marginal moves over the past five sessionsZinc ZNA step from export parity◆
-796 yuan/t
If it opens, metal flows back — the natural brake
Copper CUBackwardation fading⇄
+436.5→+88.5 $/t
Front-end pressure easing
Zinc ZNBackwardation accelerating▲
+82.9→+131.1 $/t
The slope matters more than the level
Lead PBBackwardation accelerating▲
-48.6→-34.5 $/t
The slope matters more than the level
Risk Heat — Six Metals
Click a tile to open the metal detailScore heat — where risk is buildinglowhigh
Copper CUΔ1w ▲
High
Warrant drain
Cancel 55.2%C-3M +0.62%Cover 17.9×Conc 30-40%
Zinc ZNΔ1w ▼
High
Next in line
Cancel 4.3%C-3M +3.30%28d #2 highCover 18.1×Conc 50-80%
Tin SNΔ1w ▲
Moderate
Small-base risk
Cancel 12.6%C-3M -0.66%Cover 6.3×Conc 30-40%
Aluminium ALΔ1w ▼
Moderate
Capped concentration
Cancel 1.4%C-3M -0.52%Cover 11.4×Conc 30-40%
Lead PBΔ1w ▼
Low
Loose
Cancel 13.1%C-3M -1.84%28d #3 highCover 2.6×Conc none
Nickel NIΔ1w ▼
Low
Loose · window review
Cancel 4.0%C-3M -1.01%28d #3 highCover 1.6×Conc none
Cross-Market & Arb Windows
Validate the inputs before calling a relief valve openConfirmed open0 / 6Only checked windows count
Same-day dual-session coverage6 / 6AM checks direction · PM is production
Production exceptions0No stale or material conflict in production
Closest to parityLead PB +167±250 yuan/t treated as noise
Import / export window matrix
The track preserves SHFE/LME geometry; P&L, window state and data quality are separated for clarity
Metal & qualitySHFE/LME positionImport P&L
Export 5.72Now 8.56Import 8.47
+167yuan/t · Near parity
Export 5.67Now 7.66Import 7.70
-745yuan/t · Import closed
Export 6.00Now 7.56Import 7.63
-955yuan/t · Import closed
Export 5.52Now 7.37Import 8.32
-3,065yuan/t · Import closed
Export 6.56Now 6.76Import 7.95
-4,572yuan/t · Import closed
Export 6.03Now 7.68Import 7.89
-11,502yuan/t · Import closed
Import P&L uses the latest same-day PM main contract, with AM checking direction. Export P&L remains a BW estimate; sources and parameters are not disclosed publicly.
Copper · import P&L (yuan/t)
History keeps a comparable daily basis; the final point uses latest same-day PM
-955yuan/t
Nickel · import P&L (yuan/t)
History keeps a comparable daily basis; the final point uses latest same-day PM
-745yuan/t
Detail table · stocks & window P&L▾
| Metal | LME stock | SHFE stock* | COMEX stock | SHFE receipts | Import P&L | Export P&L est. | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper CU | 238.7 kt | 89.5 kt (+19,817) | 744.3 kt | 38,619 (-2,484) | -955 Dual-session checked | -22,351 | LME is draining while COMEX holds 744kt; import P&L is -955 yuan/t and the window remains closed |
| Zinc ZN | 95.0 kt | 156.0 kt (+1,181) | 3.0 kt | 114,702 (+195) | -4,572 Dual-session checked | -796 near | About 796 yuan/t from export parity; if it opens, Chinese metal flows back offshore via Southeast Asia |
| Tin SN | 5.2 kt | 6.0 kt (+56) | — | — | -11,502 Dual-session checked | -91,395 | Both same-day AM and PM observations are negative; the import window is closed |
| Aluminium AL | 246.8 kt | 403.8 kt (-18,300) | 1.6 kt | 262,514 (-1,923) | -3,065 Dual-session checked | -5,980 | Import P&L is -3,065 yuan/t; SHFE stocks are 403.8kt and the window is firmly shut |
| Lead PB | 412.2 kt | 75.0 kt (-209) | 1.4 kt | 57,016 (+0) | +167 Near parity | -5,323 | Inside the noise band; treated as near parity, not a confirmed opening |
| Nickel NI | 268.6 kt | 112.3 kt (-771) | — | 101,800 (-54) | -745 Dual-session checked | -33,725 | PM is negative and AM/PM straddle zero, so the window is near parity |
* SHFE stocks are weekly (21-Aug-26); COMEX copper is read as reported; import P&L uses latest same-day PM with AM as a direction check.
Metal by Metal
Click any metal to expand / collapse
Copper CURisk level High
Cancel 55.2%C-3M +89Cover 17.9×
▼ expand
“What do you deliver?” — cumulative public OI through M1 runs ~18× on-warrant stock, 16 trading days to M1
Closing stock
238.7 kt
-1.5k d/d · 1w +14.9%
On-warrant stock
107.0 kt
1M -9.8%
Cancellation ratio
55.2%
1w +4.8pp
Cash–3M
+88.5
back 0.62% · 1w +436.5
Off-warrant (T-3)
127.5 kt
> on-warrant · relief buffer
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs on-warrant stock (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed on-warrant stock in lot-equivalent; shading = countdown to M1; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
The cumulative public prompt-OI proxy through M1 (2026-09-16) is 76,714 lots ≈ 1,918kt — 17.9× on-warrant stock.
Futures position banding (08-20)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
2
S
1
L
2
S
L
21
S
21
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-20)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
×2
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holders present in the 30-50% bands
Structure is delivery-sensitive; the margins to watch are cancellations, concentration and off-warrant flows. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on copperINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 30-40% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Zinc ZNRisk level High lending guidance
Cancel 4.3%C-3M +131Cover 18.1×
▼ expand
The deepest backwardation of the six (3.3%); stocks and concentration tightening together
Closing stock
95.0 kt
+1.8k d/d · 1w +9.5%
On-warrant stock
91.0 kt
1M +7.3%
Cancellation ratio
4.3%
1w -7.3pp
Cash–3M
+131.1
back 3.30% · 1w +82.928d #2 high
Off-warrant (T-3)
29.4 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs on-warrant stock (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed on-warrant stock in lot-equivalent; shading = countdown to M1; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
The cumulative public prompt-OI proxy through M1 (2026-09-16) is 65,742 lots ≈ 1,644kt — 18.1× on-warrant stock.
Futures position banding (08-20)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
2
S
51
L
51
S
41
L
4
S
21
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-20)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
×1
Tom exposure
×1
Cash exposure
×1
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance active
Structure is delivery-sensitive; the margins to watch are cancellations, concentration and off-warrant flows. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on zincINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 50-80% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Tin SNRisk level Moderate
Cancel 12.6%C-3M -365Cover 6.3×
▼ expand
Very thin absolute stock (5.2kt); structure is sensitive to any single participant
Closing stock
5.2 kt
-0.1k d/d · 1w -3.1%
On-warrant stock
4.5 kt
1M -25.4%27d #2 low
Cancellation ratio
12.6%
1w -0.4pp
Cash–3M
-365.0
contango 0.66% · 1w -311.0
Off-warrant (T-3)
1.6 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs on-warrant stock (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed on-warrant stock in lot-equivalent; shading = countdown to M1; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
The cumulative public prompt-OI proxy through M1 (2026-09-16) is 5,693 lots ≈ 28kt — 6.3× on-warrant stock.
Futures position banding (08-20)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
22
S
31
L
11
S
211
L
5
S
62
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-20)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
×1
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holders present in the 30-50% bands
In the escalation-watch zone; concentration and cancellation momentum will decide direction. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on tinINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 30-40% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Aluminium ALRisk level Moderate
Cancel 1.4%C-3M -17Cover 11.4×
▼ expand
Concentrated but capped by lending guidance; the inventory side stays loose
Closing stock
246.8 kt
-0.1k d/d · 1w -0.0%
On-warrant stock
243.4 kt
1M -1.0%28d low
Cancellation ratio
1.4%
1w +0.4pp
Cash–3M
-16.6
contango 0.52% · 1w -5.6
Off-warrant (T-3)
89.8 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs on-warrant stock (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed on-warrant stock in lot-equivalent; shading = countdown to M1; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
The cumulative public prompt-OI proxy through M1 (2026-09-16) is 110,655 lots ≈ 2,766kt — 11.4× on-warrant stock.
Futures position banding (08-20)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
111
S
4
L
4
S
12
L
4
S
22
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-20)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
×1
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holders present in the 30-50% bands
In the escalation-watch zone; concentration and cancellation momentum will decide direction. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on aluminiumINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 30-40% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Lead PBRisk level Low
Cancel 13.1%C-3M -35Cover 2.6×
▼ expand
Loose on both ends
Closing stock
412.2 kt
-3.6k d/d · 1w +0.3%
On-warrant stock
358.2 kt
1M -7.5%
Cancellation ratio
13.1%
1w +0.7pp
Cash–3M
-34.5
contango 1.84% · 1w -48.628d #3 high
Off-warrant (T-3)
38.0 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs on-warrant stock (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed on-warrant stock in lot-equivalent; shading = countdown to M1; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
The cumulative public prompt-OI proxy through M1 (2026-09-16) is 37,959 lots ≈ 949kt — 2.6× on-warrant stock.
Futures position banding (08-20)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
12
S
22
L
33
S
6
L
6
S
4
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-20)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
No significant concentration in the Holdings report
Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on leadINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL
Nickel NIRisk level Low
Cancel 4.0%C-3M -171Cover 1.6×
▼ expand
Loose across the board; the import window remains closed after cross-checking
Closing stock
268.6 kt
+0.1k d/d · 1w +1.5%
On-warrant stock
258.0 kt
1M +0.6%
Cancellation ratio
4.0%
1w +0.5pp
Cash–3M
-170.7
contango 1.01% · 1w -205.128d #3 high
Off-warrant (T-3)
99.0 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs on-warrant stock (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed on-warrant stock in lot-equivalent; shading = countdown to M1; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
The cumulative public prompt-OI proxy through M1 (2026-09-16) is 67,915 lots ≈ 407kt — 1.6× on-warrant stock.
Futures position banding (08-20)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
31
S
42
L
31
S
6
L
21
S
22
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-20)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
No significant concentration in the Holdings report
Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on nickelINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL
Methodology & Data Notes
Squeeze-risk score (0–100, rule-based)
The score aggregates five structural dimensions — concentration, a cumulative public OI proxy through M1, momentum and spread confirmation among them — under fixed, auditable rules. Dimension definitions, weights and trigger levels are internal-edition content; the public edition shows risk levels and direction only.
LME Tom-Next lending rules
| Position* | Max tom-next lending premium |
|---|---|
| 50–79.99% | 0.5% of prior cash price |
| 80–89.99% | 0.25% of prior cash price |
| 90–100% | At level (no premium) |
* Warrants + Tom + Cash ÷ live warrants. Tightness without a ≥50% holder has no such cap on the spread.
LME Front Month Lending Rules (effective 17 Mar 2026)
| Cumulative Spot Futures Position / Total Available Stock | Maximum M1 lending premium |
|---|---|
| 50–79.99% | 3% of prior M1 official close |
| 80–89.99% | 1.5% |
| 90–100% | At level |
LME Notice 26/049. The official ratio needs member/client cumulative net positions and Total Available Stock, neither reproducible from public data. This report's all-market prompt OI through M1 divided by on-warrant stock is a conservative public proxy, not the official ratio or a breach test.
Data chain & lags
Reports are archived at 06:30 SGT. After the London 11:00 release window, the workflow allows a 30-minute buffer and refreshes at 18:30 SGT (19:30 in winter), retrying every 15 minutes through 20:30. Stocks/prices are T-1; banding and holdings are T+2; off-warrant stock is a T-3 voluntary disclosure and a floor estimate.
Data quality
This issue's sentinels: 0 missing OI rows backfilled from the prior snapshot (dashed in charts), 3 low-confidence banding rows flagged, 1 curve outliers excluded, 1 stock row(s) dropped on internal-consistency checks. A stock row that fails internal consistency (on-warrant + cancelled must equal total) is treated as an upstream OCR column shift and dropped in full for that date. Nothing unreliable is silently kept.
Disclaimer
This report is market-structure research for reference only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation; you act on it at your own risk. Built on official LME publications (T+2 lag); contains no real-time prices; no warranty is given as to accuracy, completeness or timeliness.
Copyright & redistribution
© 2026 BW Research. All rights reserved. The analytical framework, scoring system, charts and text are original works of BW Research protected by copyright. No reproduction, excerpting, redistribution, mirroring or commercial use without prior written permission; cite metalsgowhere.com when referencing. LME data remains the property of The London Metal Exchange.
INTERNAL EDITION · Beyond this public edition, the daily adds
Desk view
Same-day desk read and risk flags on all six metals
Strategy playbook
A full direction / structure / execution framework, risk-tiered
Score decomposition
Item-by-item breakdown of each 0-100 score, with watch levels
Band tracking
Daily migration across Banding / Holdings bands, with persistence
Data sentinels
Full transparency on OCR repairs, outliers and methodology notes
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Metals Go Where · 2026-08-25 · Built on official LME publications · Research only; not investment advice · Silver Market Structure Monitor → · © 2026 BW Research — all rights reserved; no redistribution without permission
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