The world isn't short of copper. The LME is short of warrants — LME Squeeze-Risk Daily · 2026-08-11

TODAY▲CU back 0.81%→1.22%▲PB back -2.42%→-2.09%▼SN cancels 17.1%→14.4%vs prior day

The Main Tension

The one thing to know today

Copper CURisk level HighInventory-dislocation squeeze

The world isn't short of copper.
The LME is short of warrants.

Registered warrants have fallen to 90.0kt in a month (-54.8%), with the cancellation ratio pinned near 59%. Over the same stretch COMEX stocks climbed to a record 723kt and another 140kt sits off-warrant in LME sheds — the copper exists; it just isn't deliverable. Cash–3M has run from +74 to +174 (1.22%) in a week, and the Holdings report shows no one above 50% — which means no lending-guidance cap. This backwardation is unanchored: no rule puts a ceiling on it (contrast aluminium, where a 50–80% holder's lending obligation pins the spread). The import window is shut and exports are blocked by duty; China's two exchanges hold 86kt combined — less than the LME's own warrant pool. The nearest third-Wednesday delivery date is 6 trading days away.

Delivery countdown: 6 tdBackwardation: 1.22% and wideningConcentration: no holder ≥50% (uncapped)Arb channels: shut both ways

Registered warrants (deliverable)

90.0 kt

1M -54.8%20d low · cancellations 58.8%

Cash–3M

+174 $/t

a week ago +7419d high

To nearest 3rd Wednesday

6 trading days

front-month OI 40,961 lots ≈ 11.4× warrants

Six-metal risk map

y risk level · x cancelled% · bubble = front-month OI ÷ warrants

Where did the copper go (kt)

Warrants keep draining while off-warrant stock (T-3) builds — metal hasn't left the sheds, it's just been de-warranted

LME on-warrantLME off-warrant (T-3)

Two markets, two directions (indexed, Jul 10 = 100)

LME vs COMEX total stocks — dislocation, not shortage

LME totalCOMEX total

What Changed This Week

Marginal moves over the past five sessions

Aluminium ALConcentration step-up▲

40-50%→50-80%

Now inside the lending-guidance zone

Zinc ZNA step from export parity◆

-1,144 yuan/t

If it opens, metal flows back — the natural brake

Copper CUBackwardation accelerating▲

+73.6→+174.2 $/t

The slope matters more than the level

Nickel NIImport window open⇄

+4,755→+4,946

The only open cross-market channel

Risk Heat — Six Metals

Click a tile to open the metal detail

Score heat — where risk is buildinglowhigh

Copper CUΔ1w ▼

High

Warrant drain

Cancel 58.8%C-3M +1.22%19d highCover 11.4×Conc none

Zinc ZNΔ1w ―

Mid

Next in line

Cancel 23.1%C-3M +1.51%Cover 10.2×Conc 40-50%

Aluminium ALΔ1w ▲

Mid

Capped concentration

Cancel 4.0%C-3M +0.13%Cover 7.0×Conc 50-80%

Tin SNΔ1w ▼

Low

Small-base risk

Cancel 14.4%C-3M -0.54%Cover 2.0×Conc none

Lead PBΔ1w ▼

Low

Loose

Cancel 14.3%C-3M -2.09%Cover 1.5×Conc none

Nickel NIΔ1w ―

Low

Loose · window open

Cancel 3.2%C-3M -1.24%Cover 0.8×Conc none

Cross-Market & Arb Windows

Import / export window scale (SHFE÷LME ratio space)

Left = export parity, right = import parity (backed out of the day's import-cost model); dot = current ratio

Parity levels are backed out of BW's daily import/export cost model; model specification and parameters are internal-edition content. Zinc's 0% export duty is public policy; lead omitted (no SHFE print).

Copper · import P&L (yuan/t, 15:00)

Persistently negative = Chinese metal cannot flow to the LME

Nickel · import P&L (yuan/t, 15:00)

The only positive among the six

Detail table · stocks & window P&L▾

Metal	LME stock	SHFE stock*	COMEX stock	SHFE receipts	Import P&L	Export P&L est.	Read
Copper CU	218.3 kt	69.3 kt (-276)	722.8 kt	23,052 (+75)	-500	-23,075	LME draining while COMEX builds — dislocation persists; the import window is nearly open, which would drain Asian sheds further
Zinc ZN	97.1 kt	151.5 kt (+963)	3.0 kt	109,778 (-379)	-4,181	-1,144 near	A step from export parity: if it opens, Chinese metal flows back offshore via Southeast Asia
Aluminium AL	254.9 kt	448.7 kt (-6,350)	1.6 kt	304,741 (-2,267)	-3,103	-5,738	Window firmly shut; heavy SHFE stocks, onshore/offshore structures diverging
Tin SN	5.6 kt	5.3 kt (-170)	—	—	-14,060	-89,883	Window shut; the thinnest stocks of the six on both exchanges
Lead PB	421.8 kt	71.6 kt (+6,437)	1.4 kt	57,053 (+417)	-191	-4,870	Window shut; loose on both ends
Nickel NI	264.4 kt	112.0 kt (+1,882)	—	100,656 (+261)	+4,946	-41,371	The only open window, and it widened this week

* SHFE stocks are weekly (31-Jul-26); COMEX copper read as reported; import P&L is the 15:00 snapshot.

Metal by Metal

Click any metal to expand / collapse

Copper CURisk level High Cancel 58.8%C-3M +174Cover 11.4× ▼ expand

“What do you deliver?” — front-month exposure runs ~11× the deliverable pool, 6 trading days out

Closing stock

218.3 kt

-8.3k d/d · 1w -10.5%

On-warrant stock

90.0 kt

1M -54.8%20d low

Cancellation ratio

58.8%

1w +0.3pp

Cash–3M

+174.2

back 1.22% · 1w +73.619d high

Off-warrant (T-3)

140.2 kt

> on-warrant · relief buffer

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 40,961 lots ≈ 1,024kt — 11.4× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-06)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-06)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

No significant concentration in the Holdings report Structure is delivery-sensitive; the margins to watch are cancellations, concentration and off-warrant flows. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on copperINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Zinc ZNRisk level Mid Cancel 23.1%C-3M +57Cover 10.2× ▼ expand

The deepest backwardation of the six (1.5%); stocks and concentration tightening together

Closing stock

97.1 kt

-0.3k d/d · 1w -2.7%

On-warrant stock

74.7 kt

1M -14.6%

Cancellation ratio

23.1%

1w -3.0pp

Cash–3M

+57.2

back 1.51% · 1w +59.8

Off-warrant (T-3)

19.1 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 30,382 lots ≈ 760kt — 10.2× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-06)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-06)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

×1

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

×1

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holders present in the 30-50% bands In the escalation-watch zone; concentration and cancellation momentum will decide direction. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on zincINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 40-50% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Aluminium ALRisk level Mid lending guidance Cancel 4.0%C-3M +4Cover 7.0× ▼ expand

Concentrated but capped by lending guidance; the inventory side stays loose

Closing stock

254.9 kt

-3.0k d/d · 1w -3.0%

On-warrant stock

244.7 kt

1M -0.7%20d low

Cancellation ratio

4.0%

1w -2.6pp

Cash–3M

+4.3

back 0.13% · 1w +30.8

Off-warrant (T-3)

88.4 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 68,068 lots ≈ 1,702kt — 7.0× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-06)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-06)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

×1

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

×1

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance active If concentration and the inventory side ever align, the picture changes quickly. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on aluminiumINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 50-80% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Tin SNRisk level Low Cancel 14.4%C-3M -297Cover 2.0× ▼ expand

Very thin absolute stock (5.6kt); structure is sensitive to any single participant

Closing stock

5.6 kt

-0.2k d/d · 1w -6.2%

On-warrant stock

4.8 kt

1M -26.6%20d low

Cancellation ratio

14.4%

1w +1.9pp

Cash–3M

-297.0

contango 0.54% · 1w -307.0

Off-warrant (T-3)

1.5 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 1,958 lots ≈ 10kt — 2.0× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-06)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

211

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-06)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

No significant concentration in the Holdings report Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on tinINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Lead PBRisk level Low Cancel 14.3%C-3M -39Cover 1.5× ▼ expand

Loose on both ends

Closing stock

421.8 kt

-6.6k d/d · 1w -3.8%

On-warrant stock

361.5 kt

1M +32.3%

Cancellation ratio

14.3%

1w -2.9pp

Cash–3M

-38.9

contango 2.09% · 1w -40.4

Off-warrant (T-3)

42.7 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 21,953 lots ≈ 549kt — 1.5× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-06)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-06)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

No significant concentration in the Holdings report Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on leadINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Nickel NIRisk level Low Cancel 3.2%C-3M -207Cover 0.8× ▼ expand

Loose across the board; the story is the import window

Closing stock

264.4 kt

+0.0k d/d · 1w -0.2%

On-warrant stock

255.9 kt

1M -0.8%20d #3 low

Cancellation ratio

3.2%

1w -0.1pp

Cash–3M

-207.0

contango 1.24% · 1w -187.4

Off-warrant (T-3)

101.3 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 33,603 lots ≈ 202kt — 0.8× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-06)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-06)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

No significant concentration in the Holdings report Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on nickelINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Methodology & Data Notes

Squeeze-risk score (0–100, rule-based)

The score aggregates five structural dimensions — concentration, coverage, momentum and spread confirmation among them — under fixed rules; fully rule-based and auditable. Dimension definitions, weights and trigger levels are internal-edition content; the public edition shows risk levels (Low/Mid/High/Extreme) and direction only.

LME lending guidance

Position*	Max tom-next lending premium
50–79.99%	0.5% of prior cash price
80–89.99%	0.25% of prior cash price
90–100%	At level (no premium)

* Warrants + Tom + Cash ÷ live warrants. Tightness without a ≥50% holder has no such cap on the spread.

Data chain & lags

LME official reports captured daily at 06:30 SGT into structured factor tables. Stocks/prices are T-1; banding and holdings are published by the LME on a T+2 basis; off-warrant stock is a T-3 voluntary disclosure and a floor estimate.

Data quality

This issue's sentinels: 13 missing OI rows backfilled from the prior snapshot (dashed in charts), 6 low-confidence banding rows flagged, 1 curve outliers excluded. Nothing unreliable is silently kept.

Disclaimer

This report is market-structure research for reference only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation; you act on it at your own risk. Built on official LME publications (T+2 lag); contains no real-time prices; no warranty is given as to accuracy, completeness or timeliness.

Copyright & redistribution

© 2026 BW Research. All rights reserved. The analytical framework, scoring system, charts and text are original works of BW Research protected by copyright. No reproduction, excerpting, redistribution, mirroring or commercial use without prior written permission; cite metalsgowhere.com when referencing. LME data remains the property of The London Metal Exchange.

INTERNAL EDITION · Beyond this public edition, the daily adds

Desk view

Same-day desk read and risk flags on all six metals

Strategy playbook

A full direction / structure / execution framework, risk-tiered

Score decomposition

Item-by-item breakdown of each 0-100 score, with watch levels

Band tracking

Daily migration across Banding / Holdings bands, with persistence

Data sentinels

Full transparency on OCR repairs, outliers and methodology notes

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Metals Go Where · 2026-08-11 · Built on official LME publications · Research only; not investment advice · Silver Squeeze Monitor (weekly, CN) → · © 2026 BW Research — all rights reserved; no redistribution without permission

BW Research · metalsgowhere.com

Metals Go Where2026-08-11

The Main Tension

The world isn't short of copper.The LME is short of warrants.

What Changed This Week

Risk Heat — Six Metals

Cross-Market & Arb Windows

Metal by Metal

Methodology & Data Notes

Squeeze-risk score (0–100, rule-based)

LME lending guidance

Data chain & lags

Data quality

Disclaimer

Copyright & redistribution

The world isn't short of copper.
The LME is short of warrants.