Zinc takes the lead as concentration and backwardation converge

TODAY▲CU back 1.14%→1.71%▲SN score band up to Moderate▲ZN score band up to Highvs prior day

The Main Tension

The one thing to know today

Zinc ZNRisk level HighConcentration and front-end structure

The score is 54, up from 46; registered/on-warrant stock is down -14.8% over a month. Cash–3M is +89.5 $/t (2.33%), a 22-day high; front-month OI covers about 9.1× the warrant pool, with 3 trading days to the nearest third Wednesday. Cash holdings include a 50-80% holder. The 50–80% band is subject to LME lending guidance, which partially brakes an extreme premium: this is elevated delivery-structure risk, not an inevitable or unbounded squeeze.

Score: 54 (prior 46)Cash–3M: +89.5 $/t · 22-day highCash holdings: 50–80% band · lending guidance partly brakes extreme premiumExport parity: ~1,040 yuan/t away; not confirmed open

Registered warrants (deliverable)

74.5 kt

1M -14.8%

Cash–3M

+89.5 $/t

22-day high · 2.33%22d high

To nearest 3rd Wednesday

3 trading days

front-month OI 26,998 lots ≈ 9.1× warrants

Six-metal risk map

y risk level · x cancelled% · bubble = front-month OI ÷ warrants

Zinc: on-warrant vs total inventory (kt)

On-warrant is the deliverable waterline; total inventory includes cancelled stock, so the gap is a buffer.

LME on-warrantLME total inventory (on-warrant + cancelled)

Zinc Cash–3M: trend and acceleration

Solid is the front-end premium; dashed is the day-over-day change, showing whether pressure is still building.

Cash–3M ($/t)Day change ($/t)

What Changed This Week

Marginal moves over the past five sessions

Aluminium ALConcentration step-up▲

50-80%→90%+

Now inside the lending-guidance zone

Zinc ZNA step from export parity◆

-1,040 yuan/t

If it opens, metal flows back — the natural brake

Copper CUBackwardation accelerating▲

+108.2→+245.6 $/t

The slope matters more than the level

Zinc ZNBackwardation accelerating▲

+57.6→+89.5 $/t

The slope matters more than the level

Risk Heat — Six Metals

Click a tile to open the metal detail

Score heat — where risk is buildinglowhigh

Zinc ZNΔ1w ―

High

Next in line

Cancel 19.5%C-3M +2.33%22d highCover 9.1×Conc 50-80%

Copper CUΔ1w ▲

High

Warrant drain

Cancel 55.6%C-3M +1.71%21d highCover 9.8×Conc 30-40%

Aluminium ALΔ1w ▲

Moderate

Capped concentration

Cancel 2.2%C-3M +0.20%Cover 6.3×Conc 90%+

Tin SNΔ1w ▲

Moderate

Small-base risk

Cancel 15.4%C-3M -0.52%Cover 3.6×Conc 30-40%

Nickel NIΔ1w ―

Low

Loose · window review

Cancel 3.2%C-3M -1.21%Cover 0.6×Conc none

Lead PBΔ1w ▼

Low

Loose

Cancel 13.0%C-3M -2.36%Cover 1.3×Conc none

Cross-Market & Arb Windows

Validate the inputs before calling a relief valve open

Confirmed open0 / 6Only independently checked windows count

Same-day coverage0 / 6Uncovered metals remain single-source

Material conflicts1Stale inputs or cost-model conflict

Closest to parityLead PB -89±250 yuan/t treated as noise

Import / export window matrix

The track preserves SHFE/LME geometry; P&L, window state and data quality are separated for clarity

15:00 · 2026-08-12

Metal & qualitySHFE/LME positionImport P&L

Nickel NIStale input

Export 5.70Now 8.24Import 7.85

+6,501yuan/t · Positive, unconfirmed

Lead PBSingle source

Export 5.76Now 8.38Import 8.42

-89yuan/t · Near parity

Copper CUSingle source

Export 6.03Now 7.64Import 7.70

-787yuan/t · Import closed

Aluminium ALSingle source

Export 5.55Now 7.35Import 8.23

-2,903yuan/t · Import closed

Zinc ZNSingle source

Export 6.58Now 6.87Import 8.02

-4,293yuan/t · Import closed

Tin SNSingle source

Export 6.06Now 7.66Import 7.92

-14,769yuan/t · Import closed

Import P&L is checked against an independent same-day industry benchmark; raw readings remain in the audit trail. Export P&L remains a BW model estimate; external sources and parameters are not disclosed in the public edition.

DATA CHECKSame-day cross-checkRaw values retained for audit; external sources not disclosed

Nickel NI

+6,501.0 → +6,501.0 yuan/t

The upstream price was unchanged for 23 report dates; the raw reading is downgraded.

+0.0

Copper · import P&L (yuan/t, 15:00)

Single-source series; persistently negative = the import relief valve is closed

-787yuan/t

Nickel · import P&L (yuan/t, 15:00)

Dashed = raw series; final point = same-day cross-check

+6,501yuan/t

Detail table · stocks & window P&L▾

Metal	LME stock	SHFE stock*	COMEX stock	SHFE receipts	Import P&L	Export P&L est.	Read
Zinc ZN	92.5 kt	151.5 kt (+963)	3.0 kt	112,960 (+2,239)	-4,293 Single source	-1,040 near	A step from export parity: if it opens, Chinese metal flows back offshore via Southeast Asia
Copper CU	207.7 kt	69.3 kt (-276)	731.2 kt	27,208 (+3,077)	-787 Single source	-22,664	LME draining while COMEX builds — dislocation persists; the import window is nearly open, which would drain Asian sheds further
Aluminium AL	250.0 kt	448.7 kt (-6,350)	1.6 kt	300,070 (-3,098)	-2,903 Single source	-5,884	Window firmly shut; heavy SHFE stocks, onshore/offshore structures diverging
Tin SN	5.5 kt	5.3 kt (-170)	—	—	-14,769 Single source	-88,842	An independent benchmark is near parity but conflicts with the original cost model; no signal yet
Nickel NI	264.7 kt	112.0 kt (+1,882)	—	100,799 (+30)	+6,501 Stale input	-42,531	The prior positive reading used a stale input; the same-day cross-check leaves the window closed
Lead PB	414.4 kt	71.6 kt (+6,437)	1.4 kt	65,691 (+4,463)	-89 Single source	-4,980	Inside the noise band; treated as near parity, not a confirmed opening

* SHFE stocks are weekly (31-Jul-26); COMEX copper read as reported; import P&L is the 15:00 snapshot.

Metal by Metal

Click any metal to expand / collapse

Zinc ZNRisk level High lending guidance Cancel 19.5%C-3M +90Cover 9.1× ▼ expand

The deepest backwardation of the six (2.3%); stocks and concentration tightening together

Closing stock

92.5 kt

-2.8k d/d · 1w -6.0%

On-warrant stock

74.5 kt

1M -14.8%

Cancellation ratio

19.5%

1w -5.5pp

Cash–3M

+89.5

back 2.33% · 1w +57.622d high

Off-warrant (T-3)

21.3 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 26,998 lots ≈ 675kt — 9.1× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-11)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-11)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

×1

Tom exposure

×2

Cash exposure

×1×1

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance active Structure is delivery-sensitive; the margins to watch are cancellations, concentration and off-warrant flows. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on zincINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 50-80% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Copper CURisk level High Cancel 55.6%C-3M +246Cover 9.8× ▼ expand

“What do you deliver?” — front-month exposure runs ~10× the deliverable pool, 3 trading days out

Closing stock

207.7 kt

-4.4k d/d · 1w -10.4%

On-warrant stock

92.2 kt

1M -53.7%22d #3 low

Cancellation ratio

55.6%

1w -3.8pp

Cash–3M

+245.6

back 1.71% · 1w +108.221d high

Off-warrant (T-3)

142.1 kt

> on-warrant · relief buffer

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 36,099 lots ≈ 902kt — 9.8× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-11)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-11)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

×1

Cash exposure

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holders present in the 30-50% bands Structure is delivery-sensitive; the margins to watch are cancellations, concentration and off-warrant flows. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on copperINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 30-40% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Aluminium ALRisk level Moderate lending guidance Cancel 2.2%C-3M +6Cover 6.3× ▼ expand

Concentrated but capped by lending guidance; the inventory side stays loose

Closing stock

250.0 kt

-1.7k d/d · 1w -3.6%

On-warrant stock

244.6 kt

1M -0.7%22d low

Cancellation ratio

2.2%

1w -3.5pp

Cash–3M

+6.4

back 0.20% · 1w +5.5

Off-warrant (T-3)

85.2 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 61,838 lots ≈ 1,546kt — 6.3× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-11)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-11)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

×1

Tom exposure

×1

Cash exposure

×1

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance active If concentration and the inventory side ever align, the picture changes quickly. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on aluminiumINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 90%+ band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Tin SNRisk level Moderate Cancel 15.4%C-3M -290Cover 3.6× ▼ expand

Very thin absolute stock (5.5kt); structure is sensitive to any single participant

Closing stock

5.5 kt

-0.1k d/d · 1w -7.1%

On-warrant stock

4.7 kt

1M -28.1%21d low

Cancellation ratio

15.4%

1w +2.9pp

Cash–3M

-290.0

contango 0.52% · 1w -348.0

Off-warrant (T-3)

1.5 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 3,333 lots ≈ 17kt — 3.6× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-11)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

211

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-11)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

×1

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holders present in the 30-50% bands In the escalation-watch zone; concentration and cancellation momentum will decide direction. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on tinINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 30-40% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Nickel NIRisk level Low Cancel 3.2%C-3M -200Cover 0.6× ▼ expand

Loose across the board; the import window remains closed after cross-checking

Closing stock

264.7 kt

-0.0k d/d · 1w -0.0%

On-warrant stock

256.2 kt

1M -0.7%

Cancellation ratio

3.2%

1w -0.1pp

Cash–3M

-200.3

contango 1.21% · 1w -198.3

Off-warrant (T-3)

102.5 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 24,024 lots ≈ 144kt — 0.6× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-11)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

211

SOCR unreliable — excluded ⚠

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-11)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

No significant concentration in the Holdings report Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on nickelINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Lead PBRisk level Low Cancel 13.0%C-3M -44Cover 1.3× ▼ expand

Loose on both ends

Closing stock

414.4 kt

-2.7k d/d · 1w -4.0%

On-warrant stock

360.4 kt

1M +31.9%

Cancellation ratio

13.0%

1w -3.2pp

Cash–3M

-43.6

contango 2.36% · 1w -47.9

Off-warrant (T-3)

46.0 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 18,972 lots ≈ 474kt — 1.3× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-11)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-11)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

No significant concentration in the Holdings report Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on leadINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Methodology & Data Notes

Squeeze-risk score (0–100, rule-based)

The score aggregates five structural dimensions — concentration, coverage, momentum and spread confirmation among them — under fixed rules; fully rule-based and auditable. Dimension definitions, weights and trigger levels are internal-edition content; the public edition shows risk levels (Low/Moderate/High/Extreme) and direction only.

LME lending guidance

Position*	Max tom-next lending premium
50–79.99%	0.5% of prior cash price
80–89.99%	0.25% of prior cash price
90–100%	At level (no premium)

* Warrants + Tom + Cash ÷ live warrants. Tightness without a ≥50% holder has no such cap on the spread.

Data chain & lags

LME official reports captured daily at 06:30 SGT into structured factor tables. Stocks/prices are T-1; banding and holdings are published by the LME on a T+2 basis; off-warrant stock is a T-3 voluntary disclosure and a floor estimate.

Data quality

This issue's sentinels: 2 missing OI rows backfilled from the prior snapshot (dashed in charts), 6 low-confidence banding rows flagged, 1 curve outliers excluded, 1 stock row(s) dropped on internal-consistency checks. A stock row that fails internal consistency (on-warrant + cancelled must equal total) is treated as an upstream OCR column shift and dropped in full for that date. Nothing unreliable is silently kept.

Disclaimer

This report is market-structure research for reference only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation; you act on it at your own risk. Built on official LME publications (T+2 lag); contains no real-time prices; no warranty is given as to accuracy, completeness or timeliness.

Copyright & redistribution

© 2026 BW Research. All rights reserved. The analytical framework, scoring system, charts and text are original works of BW Research protected by copyright. No reproduction, excerpting, redistribution, mirroring or commercial use without prior written permission; cite metalsgowhere.com when referencing. LME data remains the property of The London Metal Exchange.

INTERNAL EDITION · Beyond this public edition, the daily adds

Desk view

Same-day desk read and risk flags on all six metals

Strategy playbook

A full direction / structure / execution framework, risk-tiered

Score decomposition

Item-by-item breakdown of each 0-100 score, with watch levels

Band tracking

Daily migration across Banding / Holdings bands, with persistence

Data sentinels

Full transparency on OCR repairs, outliers and methodology notes

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Metals Go Where · 2026-08-14 · Built on official LME publications · Research only; not investment advice · Silver Squeeze Monitor (weekly, CN) → · © 2026 BW Research — all rights reserved; no redistribution without permission

BW Research · metalsgowhere.com

Metals Go Where2026-08-14

The Main Tension