TODAY▼CU back 2.99%→1.74%▼CU on-warrant +19.4%▼CU cancels 50.4%→44.9%vs prior day
The Main Tension
The one thing to know todayRisk level HighInventory-dislocation squeeze
The world isn't short of copper.
The LME is short of warrants.
Registered warrants have fallen to 123.1kt in a month (-29.5%), with the cancellation ratio pinned near 45%. Over the same stretch COMEX stocks climbed to a record 737kt and another 143kt sits off-warrant in LME sheds — the copper exists; it just isn't deliverable. Cash–3M has run from +115 to +248 (1.74%) in a week, and the Holdings report shows no one above 50% — which means no lending-guidance cap. This backwardation is unanchored: no rule puts a ceiling on it (contrast aluminium, where a 50–80% holder's lending obligation pins the spread). The import window is shut and exports are blocked by duty; China's two exchanges hold 87kt combined — less than the LME's own warrant pool. The nearest third-Wednesday delivery date is 20 trading days away.
Delivery countdown: 20 tdBackwardation: 1.74% and wideningConcentration: 50-80% holder presentArb channels: shut both ways
Registered warrants (deliverable)
123.1 kt
1M -29.5% · cancellations 44.9%
Cash–3M
+248 $/t
a week ago +11523d #2 high
To nearest 3rd Wednesday
20 trading days
front-month OI 8,644 lots ≈ 1.8× warrants
Six-metal risk map
y risk level · x cancelled% · bubble = front-month OI ÷ warrants
Where did the copper go (kt)
Warrants keep draining while off-warrant stock (T-3) builds — metal hasn't left the sheds, it's just been de-warranted
LME on-warrantLME off-warrant (T-3)
Two markets, two directions (indexed, Jul 10 = 100)
LME vs COMEX total stocks — dislocation, not shortage
LME totalCOMEX total
What Changed This Week
Marginal moves over the past five sessionsCopper CUConcentration step-up▲
none→50-80%
Now inside the lending-guidance zone
Zinc ZNConcentration step-up▲
40-50%→50-80%
Now inside the lending-guidance zone
Zinc ZNA step from export parity◆
-1,008 yuan/t
If it opens, metal flows back — the natural brake
Copper CUBackwardation accelerating▲
+114.6→+248.0 $/t
The slope matters more than the level
Risk Heat — Six Metals
Click a tile to open the metal detailScore heat — where risk is buildinglowhigh
Copper CUΔ1w ▲
High
Warrant drain
Cancel 44.9%C-3M +1.74%23d #2 highCover 1.8×Conc 50-80%
Zinc ZNΔ1w ▲
Moderate
Next in line
Cancel 9.3%C-3M +2.24%24d #2 highCover 3.2×Conc 50-80%
Aluminium ALΔ1w ―
Moderate
Capped concentration
Cancel 1.0%C-3M -0.43%Cover 1.4×Conc 50-80%
Tin SNΔ1w ▼
Low
Small-base risk
Cancel 13.1%C-3M -0.67%Cover 1.5×Conc 30-40%
Nickel NIΔ1w ―
Low
Loose · window review
Cancel 3.4%C-3M -1.19%Cover 0.1×Conc none
Lead PBΔ1w ▲
Low
Loose
Cancel 12.3%C-3M -2.66%Cover 0.5×Conc 30-40%
Cross-Market & Arb Windows
Validate the inputs before calling a relief valve openConfirmed open1 / 6Only checked windows count
Same-day dual-session coverage6 / 6AM checks direction · PM is production
Production exceptions1Stale/conflicting readings isolated
Closest to parityLead PB +102±250 yuan/t treated as noise
Import / export window matrix
The track preserves SHFE/LME geometry; P&L, window state and data quality are separated for clarity
Metal & qualitySHFE/LME positionImport P&L
Export 6.05Now 7.65Import 7.91
-14,242yuan/t · Import closed
Export 5.74Now 8.56Import 8.50
+102yuan/t · Near parity
Export 6.02Now 7.70Import 7.65
+691yuan/t · Positive, unconfirmed
Export 5.69Now 7.70Import 7.73
-527yuan/t · Import closed
Export 5.54Now 7.38Import 6.41
+3,117yuan/t · Import open
Export 6.57Now 6.84Import 7.98
-4,244yuan/t · Import closed
Import P&L uses the latest same-day PM main contract, with AM checking direction. Export P&L remains a BW estimate; sources and parameters are not disclosed publicly.
Copper · import P&L (yuan/t)
History keeps a comparable daily basis; the final point uses latest same-day PM
+691yuan/t
Nickel · import P&L (yuan/t)
History keeps a comparable daily basis; the final point uses latest same-day PM
-527yuan/t
Detail table · stocks & window P&L▾
| Metal | LME stock | SHFE stock* | COMEX stock | SHFE receipts | Import P&L | Export P&L est. | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper CU | 223.6 kt | 69.7 kt (-385) | 737.4 kt | 58,121 (+2,829) | +691 Near parity | -23,336 | LME is draining while COMEX holds 737kt; import P&L is +691 yuan/t and the window remains closed |
| Zinc ZN | 86.5 kt | — | 3.0 kt | 114,807 (+599) | -4,244 Dual-session checked | -1,008 near | About 1,008 yuan/t from export parity; if it opens, Chinese metal flows back offshore via Southeast Asia |
| Aluminium AL | 246.9 kt | — | 1.6 kt | 292,929 (-2,916) | +3,117 Dual-session checked | -5,932 | Import P&L is +3,117 yuan/t; SHFE stocks are 0.0kt and the window is firmly shut |
| Tin SN | 5.3 kt | 6.0 kt (+516) | — | — | -14,242 Model conflict | -88,475 | Both same-day AM and PM observations are negative; the import window is closed |
| Nickel NI | 265.2 kt | — | — | 102,058 (+227) | -527 Dual-session checked | -33,632 | PM is negative and AM/PM straddle zero, so the window is near parity |
| Lead PB | 409.0 kt | — | 1.4 kt | 65,564 (-325) | +102 Near parity | -5,245 | Inside the noise band; treated as near parity, not a confirmed opening |
* SHFE stocks are weekly (14-Aug-26); COMEX copper is read as reported; import P&L uses latest same-day PM with AM as a direction check.
Metal by Metal
Click any metal to expand / collapse
Copper CURisk level High lending guidance
Cancel 44.9%C-3M +248Cover 1.8×
▼ expand
“What do you deliver?” — front-month exposure runs ~2× the deliverable pool, 20 trading days out
Closing stock
223.6 kt
+15.7k d/d · 1w -1.4%
On-warrant stock
123.1 kt
1M -29.5%
Cancellation ratio
44.9%
1w -13.5pp
Cash–3M
+248.0
back 1.74% · 1w +114.623d #2 high
Off-warrant (T-3)
142.6 kt
> on-warrant · relief buffer
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 8,644 lots ≈ 216kt — 1.8× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-14)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
111
S
L
2
S
1
L
2
S
3
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-14)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
×1×2
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance active
Structure is delivery-sensitive; the margins to watch are cancellations, concentration and off-warrant flows. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on copperINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 50-80% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Zinc ZNRisk level Moderate lending guidance
Cancel 9.3%C-3M +84Cover 3.2×
▼ expand
The deepest backwardation of the six (2.2%); stocks and concentration tightening together
Closing stock
86.5 kt
-0.3k d/d · 1w -11.2%
On-warrant stock
78.5 kt
1M -9.7%
Cancellation ratio
9.3%
1w -15.0pp
Cash–3M
+84.5
back 2.24% · 1w +52.224d #2 high
Off-warrant (T-3)
23.3 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 9,989 lots ≈ 250kt — 3.2× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-14)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
41
S
22
L
1
S
411
L
3
S
31
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-14)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
×1
Tom exposure
×1
Cash exposure
×2×1×1
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance active
If concentration and the inventory side ever align, the picture changes quickly. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on zincINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 50-80% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Aluminium ALRisk level Moderate lending guidance
Cancel 1.0%C-3M -14Cover 1.4×
▼ expand
Concentrated but capped by lending guidance; the inventory side stays loose
Closing stock
246.9 kt
+0.0k d/d · 1w -4.3%
On-warrant stock
244.5 kt
1M -0.8%24d low
Cancellation ratio
1.0%
1w -4.1pp
Cash–3M
-13.8
contango 0.43% · 1w +3.2
Off-warrant (T-3)
86.8 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 13,308 lots ≈ 333kt — 1.4× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-14)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
51
S
12
L
12
S
2
L
4
S
21
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-14)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
×1
Tom exposure
×1×1
Cash exposure
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance active
If concentration and the inventory side ever align, the picture changes quickly. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on aluminiumINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 50-80% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Tin SNRisk level Low
Cancel 13.1%C-3M -365Cover 1.5×
▼ expand
Very thin absolute stock (5.3kt); structure is sensitive to any single participant
Closing stock
5.3 kt
-0.0k d/d · 1w -8.5%
On-warrant stock
4.6 kt
1M -28.0%23d low
Cancellation ratio
13.1%
1w -4.0pp
Cash–3M
-365.0
contango 0.67% · 1w -320.5
Off-warrant (T-3)
1.6 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 1,424 lots ≈ 7kt — 1.5× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-14)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
21
S
51
L
22
S
21
L
11
S
22
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-14)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
×1
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
×1
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holders present in the 30-50% bands
Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on tinINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 30-40% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Nickel NIRisk level Low
Cancel 3.4%C-3M -197Cover 0.1×
▼ expand
Loose across the board; the import window remains closed after cross-checking
Closing stock
265.2 kt
+0.4k d/d · 1w +0.3%
On-warrant stock
256.1 kt
1M -0.7%
Cancellation ratio
3.4%
1w +0.2pp
Cash–3M
-196.9
contango 1.19% · 1w -199.8
Off-warrant (T-3)
101.0 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 4,674 lots ≈ 28kt — 0.1× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-14)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
11
S
61
L
11
S
32
L
31
S
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-14)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
No significant concentration in the Holdings report
Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on nickelINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL
Lead PBRisk level Low
Cancel 12.3%C-3M -49Cover 0.5×
▼ expand
Loose on both ends
Closing stock
409.0 kt
-2.0k d/d · 1w -4.5%
On-warrant stock
358.7 kt
1M +31.7%
Cancellation ratio
12.3%
1w -3.3pp
Cash–3M
-48.9
contango 2.66% · 1w -44.6
Off-warrant (T-3)
46.5 kt
below on-warrant
Stock structure (1M, daily)
Stack = closing stock
On-warrantCancelled
Cancellation ratio (1M)
cancelled ÷ closing stock
Cash–3M spread (1M)
Positive = backwardation; T-1
MOC front curve (to +3M)
By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation
The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)
Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot
Front-month prompt OI totals 6,567 lots ≈ 164kt — 0.5× the registered warrant pool.
Futures position banding (08-14)
Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated
5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+
L
21
S
231
L
6
S
5
Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.
Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-14)
The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone
▲ 50% lending-guidance line
30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+
Warrant holdings
Tom exposure
Cash exposure
×1
Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).
Holders present in the 30-50% bands
Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.
INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS
Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on leadINTERNAL
Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL
Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 30-40% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL
Methodology & Data Notes
Squeeze-risk score (0–100, rule-based)
The score aggregates five structural dimensions — concentration, coverage, momentum and spread confirmation among them — under fixed rules; fully rule-based and auditable. Dimension definitions, weights and trigger levels are internal-edition content; the public edition shows risk levels (Low/Moderate/High/Extreme) and direction only.
LME lending guidance
| Position* | Max tom-next lending premium |
|---|---|
| 50–79.99% | 0.5% of prior cash price |
| 80–89.99% | 0.25% of prior cash price |
| 90–100% | At level (no premium) |
* Warrants + Tom + Cash ÷ live warrants. Tightness without a ≥50% holder has no such cap on the spread.
Data chain & lags
LME official reports captured daily at 06:30 SGT into structured factor tables. Stocks/prices are T-1; banding and holdings are published by the LME on a T+2 basis; off-warrant stock is a T-3 voluntary disclosure and a floor estimate.
Data quality
This issue's sentinels: 5 missing OI rows backfilled from the prior snapshot (dashed in charts), 5 low-confidence banding rows flagged, 1 curve outliers excluded, 1 stock row(s) dropped on internal-consistency checks. A stock row that fails internal consistency (on-warrant + cancelled must equal total) is treated as an upstream OCR column shift and dropped in full for that date. Nothing unreliable is silently kept.
Disclaimer
This report is market-structure research for reference only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation; you act on it at your own risk. Built on official LME publications (T+2 lag); contains no real-time prices; no warranty is given as to accuracy, completeness or timeliness.
Copyright & redistribution
© 2026 BW Research. All rights reserved. The analytical framework, scoring system, charts and text are original works of BW Research protected by copyright. No reproduction, excerpting, redistribution, mirroring or commercial use without prior written permission; cite metalsgowhere.com when referencing. LME data remains the property of The London Metal Exchange.
INTERNAL EDITION · Beyond this public edition, the daily adds
Desk view
Same-day desk read and risk flags on all six metals
Strategy playbook
A full direction / structure / execution framework, risk-tiered
Score decomposition
Item-by-item breakdown of each 0-100 score, with watch levels
Band tracking
Daily migration across Banding / Holdings bands, with persistence
Data sentinels
Full transparency on OCR repairs, outliers and methodology notes
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Metals Go Where · 2026-08-19 · Built on official LME publications · Research only; not investment advice · Silver Market Structure Monitor → · © 2026 BW Research — all rights reserved; no redistribution without permission
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