The world isn't short of copper. The LME is short of warrants — LME Squeeze-Risk Daily · 2026-08-20

TODAY▼CU on-warrant +29.0%▼CU cancels 44.9%→32.7%▼ZN on-warrant +12.1%vs prior day

The Main Tension

The one thing to know today

Copper CURisk level ModerateInventory-dislocation squeeze

The world isn't short of copper.
The LME is short of warrants.

Registered warrants have fallen to 158.8kt in a month (-1.7%), with the cancellation ratio pinned near 33%. Over the same stretch COMEX stocks climbed to a record 739kt and another 142kt sits off-warrant in LME sheds — the copper exists; it just isn't deliverable. Cash–3M has run from +174 to +315 (2.19%) in a week, and the Holdings report shows no one above 50% — which means no lending-guidance cap. This backwardation is unanchored: no rule puts a ceiling on it (contrast aluminium, where a 50–80% holder's lending obligation pins the spread). The import window is shut and exports are blocked by duty; China's two exchanges hold 87kt combined — less than the LME's own warrant pool. The nearest third-Wednesday delivery date is 19 trading days away.

Delivery countdown: 19 tdBackwardation: 2.19% and wideningConcentration: 80-90% holder presentArb channels: shut both ways

Registered warrants (deliverable)

158.8 kt

1M -1.7% · cancellations 32.7%

Cash–3M

+315 $/t

a week ago +17424d #2 high

To nearest 3rd Wednesday

19 trading days

front-month OI 9,980 lots ≈ 1.6× warrants

Six-metal risk map

y risk level · x cancelled% · bubble = front-month OI ÷ warrants

Where did the copper go (kt)

Warrants keep draining while off-warrant stock (T-3) builds — metal hasn't left the sheds, it's just been de-warranted

LME on-warrantLME off-warrant (T-3)

Two markets, two directions (indexed, Jul 10 = 100)

LME vs COMEX total stocks — dislocation, not shortage

LME totalCOMEX total

What Changed This Week

Marginal moves over the past five sessions

Copper CUConcentration step-up▲

none→80-90%

Now inside the lending-guidance zone

Zinc ZNConcentration step-up▲

40-50%→50-80%

Now inside the lending-guidance zone

Zinc ZNA step from export parity◆

-995 yuan/t

If it opens, metal flows back — the natural brake

Copper CUBackwardation accelerating▲

+174.2→+314.8 $/t

The slope matters more than the level

Risk Heat — Six Metals

Click a tile to open the metal detail

Score heat — where risk is buildinglowhigh

Copper CUΔ1w ▲

Moderate

Warrant drain

Cancel 32.7%C-3M +2.19%24d #2 highCover 1.6×Conc 80-90%

Zinc ZNΔ1w ▼

Moderate

Next in line

Cancel 7.4%C-3M +2.48%25d highCover 2.9×Conc 50-80%

Aluminium ALΔ1w ―

Moderate

Capped concentration

Cancel 1.0%C-3M -0.51%Cover 1.4×Conc 50-80%

Tin SNΔ1w ▲

Low

Small-base risk

Cancel 12.6%C-3M -0.60%Cover 1.5×Conc 30-40%

Lead PBΔ1w ▲

Low

Loose

Cancel 11.6%C-3M -2.48%Cover 0.5×Conc 30-40%

Nickel NIΔ1w ―

Low

Loose · window review

Cancel 3.4%C-3M -1.05%25d highCover 0.1×Conc none

Cross-Market & Arb Windows

Validate the inputs before calling a relief valve open

Confirmed open0 / 6Only checked windows count

Same-day dual-session coverage4 / 6AM checks direction · PM is production

Production exceptions0No stale or material conflict in production

Closest to parityLead PB +177±250 yuan/t treated as noise

Import / export window matrix

The track preserves SHFE/LME geometry; P&L, window state and data quality are separated for clarity

Latest PM None · 2026-08-19

Metal & qualitySHFE/LME positionImport P&L

Lead PBNear parity

Export 5.73Now 8.58Import 8.49

+177yuan/t · Near parity

Copper CUNear parity

Export 6.01Now 7.65Import 7.63

+276yuan/t · Positive, unconfirmed

Nickel NIDual-session checked

Export 5.68Now 7.67Import 7.71

-581yuan/t · Import closed

Aluminium ALDual-session checked

Export 5.53Now 7.36Import 8.33

-3,120yuan/t · Import closed

Tin SNDual-session checked

Export 6.04Now 7.67Import 7.89

-12,055yuan/t · Import closed

Zinc ZNSingle source

Export 6.57Now 6.83Import 7.97

-4,215yuan/t · Import closed

Import P&L uses the latest same-day PM main contract, with AM checking direction. Export P&L remains a BW estimate; sources and parameters are not disclosed publicly.

Copper · import P&L (yuan/t)

History keeps a comparable daily basis; the final point uses latest same-day PM

+276yuan/t

Nickel · import P&L (yuan/t)

History keeps a comparable daily basis; the final point uses latest same-day PM

-581yuan/t

Detail table · stocks & window P&L▾

Metal	LME stock	SHFE stock*	COMEX stock	SHFE receipts	Import P&L	Export P&L est.	Read
Copper CU	236.0 kt	69.7 kt (-385)	738.9 kt	56,698 (-1,423)	+276 Near parity	-22,891	LME is draining while COMEX holds 739kt; import P&L is +276 yuan/t and the window remains closed
Zinc ZN	95.0 kt	—	3.0 kt	115,061 (+254)	-4,215 Single source	-995 near	About 995 yuan/t from export parity; if it opens, Chinese metal flows back offshore via Southeast Asia
Aluminium AL	246.9 kt	—	1.6 kt	290,536 (-2,393)	-3,120 Dual-session checked	-5,868	Import P&L is -3,120 yuan/t; SHFE stocks are 0.0kt and the window is firmly shut
Tin SN	5.6 kt	6.0 kt (+516)	—	—	-12,055 Dual-session checked	-90,133	Both same-day AM and PM observations are negative; the import window is closed
Lead PB	418.6 kt	—	1.4 kt	65,490 (-74)	+177 Near parity	-5,275	Inside the noise band; treated as near parity, not a confirmed opening
Nickel NI	265.2 kt	—	—	—	-581 Dual-session checked	-33,573	PM is negative and AM/PM straddle zero, so the window is near parity

* SHFE stocks are weekly (14-Aug-26); COMEX copper is read as reported; import P&L uses latest same-day PM with AM as a direction check.

Metal by Metal

Click any metal to expand / collapse

Copper CURisk level Moderate lending guidance Cancel 32.7%C-3M +315Cover 1.6× ▼ expand

“What do you deliver?” — front-month exposure runs ~2× the deliverable pool, 19 trading days out

Closing stock

236.0 kt

+12.4k d/d · 1w +8.1%

On-warrant stock

158.8 kt

1M -1.7%

Cancellation ratio

32.7%

1w -26.1pp

Cash–3M

+314.8

back 2.19% · 1w +174.224d #2 high

Off-warrant (T-3)

142.3 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 9,980 lots ≈ 250kt — 1.6× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-17)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-17)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

×1×2

Cash exposure

×1×1

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance active If concentration and the inventory side ever align, the picture changes quickly. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on copperINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 80-90% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Zinc ZNRisk level Moderate lending guidance Cancel 7.4%C-3M +94Cover 2.9× ▼ expand

The deepest backwardation of the six (2.5%); stocks and concentration tightening together

Closing stock

95.0 kt

+8.5k d/d · 1w -2.1%

On-warrant stock

88.0 kt

1M +3.2%

Cancellation ratio

7.4%

1w -15.6pp

Cash–3M

+94.4

back 2.48% · 1w +57.225d high

Off-warrant (T-3)

26.8 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 10,325 lots ≈ 258kt — 2.9× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-17)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-17)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

×1

Tom exposure

×2

Cash exposure

×1×1

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance active If concentration and the inventory side ever align, the picture changes quickly. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on zincINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 50-80% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Aluminium ALRisk level Moderate lending guidance Cancel 1.0%C-3M -16Cover 1.4× ▼ expand

Concentrated but capped by lending guidance; the inventory side stays loose

Closing stock

246.9 kt

+0.0k d/d · 1w -3.1%

On-warrant stock

244.5 kt

1M -0.7%25d low

Cancellation ratio

1.0%

1w -3.0pp

Cash–3M

-16.3

contango 0.51% · 1w +4.3

Off-warrant (T-3)

86.7 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 13,541 lots ≈ 339kt — 1.4× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-17)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-17)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

×1×1

Tom exposure

×1×1

Cash exposure

×1×1

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance active If concentration and the inventory side ever align, the picture changes quickly. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on aluminiumINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 50-80% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Tin SNRisk level Low Cancel 12.6%C-3M -331Cover 1.5× ▼ expand

Very thin absolute stock (5.6kt); structure is sensitive to any single participant

Closing stock

5.6 kt

+0.3k d/d · 1w -4.1%

On-warrant stock

4.9 kt

1M -22.7%

Cancellation ratio

12.6%

1w -4.5pp

Cash–3M

-331.0

contango 0.60% · 1w -297.0

Off-warrant (T-3)

1.8 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 1,416 lots ≈ 7kt — 1.5× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-17)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-17)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

×1

Tom exposure

×1

Cash exposure

×1

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holders present in the 30-50% bands Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on tinINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 30-40% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Lead PBRisk level Low Cancel 11.6%C-3M -46Cover 0.5× ▼ expand

Loose on both ends

Closing stock

418.6 kt

+9.6k d/d · 1w -0.8%

On-warrant stock

369.9 kt

1M +4.2%

Cancellation ratio

11.6%

1w -2.7pp

Cash–3M

-45.7

contango 2.48% · 1w -38.9

Off-warrant (T-3)

47.0 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 6,664 lots ≈ 167kt — 0.5× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-17)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

111

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-17)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

×1

Cash exposure

×1

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holders present in the 30-50% bands Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on leadINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 30-40% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Nickel NIRisk level Low Cancel 3.4%C-3M -179Cover 0.1× ▼ expand

Loose across the board; the import window remains closed after cross-checking

Closing stock

265.2 kt

+0.1k d/d · 1w +0.3%

On-warrant stock

256.2 kt

1M -0.6%

Cancellation ratio

3.4%

1w +0.2pp

Cash–3M

-178.7

contango 1.05% · 1w -207.025d high

Off-warrant (T-3)

100.9 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs the warrant water line (lots)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed the entire deliverable pool; shading = countdown to the nearest 3rd Wednesday; ↺ = backfilled from the prior snapshot

Front-month prompt OI totals 4,681 lots ≈ 28kt — 0.1× the registered warrant pool.

Futures position banding (08-17)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (08-17)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

No significant concentration in the Holdings report Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on nickelINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Methodology & Data Notes

Squeeze-risk score (0–100, rule-based)

The score aggregates five structural dimensions — concentration, coverage, momentum and spread confirmation among them — under fixed rules; fully rule-based and auditable. Dimension definitions, weights and trigger levels are internal-edition content; the public edition shows risk levels (Low/Moderate/High/Extreme) and direction only.

LME lending guidance

Position*	Max tom-next lending premium
50–79.99%	0.5% of prior cash price
80–89.99%	0.25% of prior cash price
90–100%	At level (no premium)

* Warrants + Tom + Cash ÷ live warrants. Tightness without a ≥50% holder has no such cap on the spread.

Data chain & lags

LME official reports captured daily at 06:30 SGT into structured factor tables. Stocks/prices are T-1; banding and holdings are published by the LME on a T+2 basis; off-warrant stock is a T-3 voluntary disclosure and a floor estimate.

Data quality

This issue's sentinels: 5 missing OI rows backfilled from the prior snapshot (dashed in charts), 3 low-confidence banding rows flagged, 1 curve outliers excluded, 1 stock row(s) dropped on internal-consistency checks. A stock row that fails internal consistency (on-warrant + cancelled must equal total) is treated as an upstream OCR column shift and dropped in full for that date. Nothing unreliable is silently kept.

Disclaimer

This report is market-structure research for reference only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation; you act on it at your own risk. Built on official LME publications (T+2 lag); contains no real-time prices; no warranty is given as to accuracy, completeness or timeliness.

Copyright & redistribution

© 2026 BW Research. All rights reserved. The analytical framework, scoring system, charts and text are original works of BW Research protected by copyright. No reproduction, excerpting, redistribution, mirroring or commercial use without prior written permission; cite metalsgowhere.com when referencing. LME data remains the property of The London Metal Exchange.

INTERNAL EDITION · Beyond this public edition, the daily adds

Desk view

Same-day desk read and risk flags on all six metals

Strategy playbook

A full direction / structure / execution framework, risk-tiered

Score decomposition

Item-by-item breakdown of each 0-100 score, with watch levels

Band tracking

Daily migration across Banding / Holdings bands, with persistence

Data sentinels

Full transparency on OCR repairs, outliers and methodology notes

Unlock the internal edition

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Metals Go Where · 2026-08-20 · Built on official LME publications · Research only; not investment advice · Silver Market Structure Monitor → · © 2026 BW Research — all rights reserved; no redistribution without permission

BW Research · metalsgowhere.com

Metals Go Where2026-08-20

The Main Tension

The world isn't short of copper.The LME is short of warrants.

What Changed This Week

Risk Heat — Six Metals

Cross-Market & Arb Windows

Metal by Metal

Methodology & Data Notes

Squeeze-risk score (0–100, rule-based)

LME lending guidance

Data chain & lags

Data quality

Disclaimer

Copyright & redistribution

The world isn't short of copper.
The LME is short of warrants.