Zinc takes the lead as concentration and backwardation converge

TODAY▼ZN back 3.65%→3.32%▼CU back 0.54%→0.22%▲PB back -2.21%→-2.02%vs prior day

The Main Tension

The one thing to know today

Zinc ZNRisk level ModerateConcentration and front-end structure

The score is 49, up from 49; registered/on-warrant stock is down +16.2% over a month. Cash–3M is +138.2 $/t (3.32%), near its 22-day high; the cumulative public OI proxy through M1 is about 9.2× on-warrant stock, with 5 trading days to M1. Cash holdings include a 50-80% holder. The 50–80% band is subject to LME lending guidance, which partially brakes an extreme premium: this is elevated delivery-structure risk, not an inevitable or unbounded squeeze.

Score: 49 (prior 49)Cash–3M: +138.2 $/t · near 22-day highCash holdings: 50–80% band · lending guidance partly brakes extreme premiumExport parity: ~1,206 yuan/t away; not confirmed open

Registered warrants (deliverable)

85.8 kt

1M +16.2%

Cash–3M

+138.2 $/t

near 22-day high · 3.32%

To M1 (09-16)

5 trading days

cumulative OI proxy 31,395 lots ≈ 9.2× on-warrant

Six-metal risk map

y risk level · x cancelled% · bubble = cumulative public OI through M1 ÷ on-warrant

Zinc: on-warrant vs total inventory (kt)

On-warrant is the deliverable waterline; total inventory includes cancelled stock, so the gap is a buffer.

LME on-warrantLME total inventory (on-warrant + cancelled)

Zinc Cash–3M: trend and acceleration

Solid is the front-end premium; dashed is the day-over-day change, showing whether pressure is still building.

Cash–3M ($/t)Day change ($/t)

What Changed This Week

Marginal moves over the past five sessions

Zinc ZNA step from export parity◆

-1,206 yuan/t

If it opens, metal flows back — the natural brake

Tin SNCancellations jump◆

13.2%→25.5%

+12.3pp — rising intent to take delivery

Copper CUBackwardation fading⇄

+131.1→+32.7 $/t

Front-end pressure easing

Lead PBBackwardation fading⇄

-30.0→-38.0 $/t

Front-end pressure easing

Risk Heat — Six Metals

Click a tile to open the metal detail

Score heat — where risk is buildinglowhigh

Zinc ZNΔ1w ▼

Moderate

Next in line

Cancel 25.7%C-3M +3.32%Cover 9.2×Conc 50-80%

Tin SNΔ1w ▲

Moderate

Small-base risk

Cancel 25.5%38d #3 highC-3M -0.62%Cover 4.1×Conc 40-50%

Copper CUΔ1w ▼

Moderate

Warrant drain

Cancel 51.0%C-3M +0.22%Cover 7.9×Conc none

Aluminium ALΔ1w ▼

Low

Capped concentration

Cancel 1.5%C-3M +0.13%Cover 6.0×Conc 30-40%

Nickel NIΔ1w ▲

Low

Loose · window review

Cancel 5.1%C-3M -0.86%39d #2 highCover 1.0×Conc none

Lead PBΔ1w ―

Low

Loose

Cancel 10.1%C-3M -2.02%Cover 1.6×Conc none

Cross-Market & Arb Windows

Validate the inputs before calling a relief valve open

Confirmed open0 / 6Only checked windows count

Same-day dual-session coverage5 / 6AM checks direction · PM is production

Production exceptions0No stale or material conflict in production

Closest to parityLead PB +33±250 yuan/t treated as noise

Import / export window matrix

The track preserves SHFE/LME geometry; P&L, window state and data quality are separated for clarity

Latest PM 22:25 · 2026-09-09

Metal & qualitySHFE/LME positionImport P&L

Lead PBNear parity

Export 5.70Now 8.50Import 8.48

+33yuan/t · Near parity

Nickel NIDual-session checked

Export 5.65Now 7.64Import 7.69

-854yuan/t · Import closed

Copper CUDual-session checked

Export 5.98Now 7.52Import 7.61

-1,318yuan/t · Import closed

Aluminium ALDual-session checked

Export 5.50Now 7.31Import 8.25

-3,172yuan/t · Import closed

Zinc ZNDual-session checked

Export 6.54Now 6.83Import 7.91

-4,351yuan/t · Import closed

Tin SNSingle source

Export 6.01Now 7.66Import 7.88

-12,103yuan/t · Import closed

Import P&L uses the latest same-day PM main contract, with AM checking direction. Export P&L remains a BW estimate; sources and parameters are not disclosed publicly.

Copper · import P&L (yuan/t)

History keeps a comparable daily basis; the final point uses latest same-day PM

-1,318yuan/t

Nickel · import P&L (yuan/t)

History keeps a comparable daily basis; the final point uses latest same-day PM

-854yuan/t

Detail table · stocks & window P&L▾

Metal	LME stock	SHFE stock*	COMEX stock	SHFE receipts	Import P&L	Export P&L est.	Read
Zinc ZN	115.4 kt	148.7 kt (-5,008)	3.0 kt	92,382 (+785)	-4,351 Dual-session checked	-1,206 near	About 1,206 yuan/t from export parity; if it opens, Chinese metal flows back offshore via Southeast Asia
Tin SN	5.3 kt	6.5 kt (+118)	—	—	-12,103 Single source	-89,667	Both same-day AM and PM observations are negative; the import window is closed
Copper CU	237.7 kt	63.0 kt (-9,428)	767.3 kt	21,009 (-403)	-1,318 Dual-session checked	-22,848	LME is draining while COMEX holds 767kt; import P&L is -1,318 yuan/t and the window remains closed
Aluminium AL	244.5 kt	364.7 kt (-26,796)	1.3 kt	215,319 (-1,858)	-3,172 Dual-session checked	-6,074	Import P&L is -3,172 yuan/t; SHFE stocks are 364.7kt and the window is firmly shut
Nickel NI	271.0 kt	111.4 kt (-728)	—	98,651 (-528)	-854 Dual-session checked	-33,394	PM is negative and AM/PM straddle zero, so the window is near parity
Lead PB	385.1 kt	73.8 kt (+697)	1.4 kt	58,291 (+549)	+33 Near parity	-5,298	Inside the noise band; treated as near parity, not a confirmed opening

* SHFE stocks are weekly (04-Sep-26); COMEX copper is read as reported; import P&L uses latest same-day PM with AM as a direction check.

Metal by Metal

Click any metal to expand / collapse

Zinc ZNRisk level Moderate lending guidance Cancel 25.7%C-3M +138Cover 9.2× ▼ expand

The deepest backwardation of the six (3.3%); stocks and concentration tightening together

Closing stock

115.4 kt

+0.0k d/d · 1w +14.8%

On-warrant stock

85.8 kt

1M +16.2%

Cancellation ratio

25.7%

1w -4.3pp

Cash–3M

+138.2

back 3.32% · 1w +139.3

Off-warrant (T-3)

14.1 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M) (09-07)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs on-warrant stock (lots) · BANDS OCR + Bloomberg (09-07)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed on-warrant stock in lot-equivalent; shading = countdown to M1; ↺ = daily change unavailable

The cumulative public prompt-OI proxy through M1 (2026-09-16) is 31,395 lots ≈ 785kt — 9.2× on-warrant stock.

Futures position banding (09-07 · Bloomberg)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

SEP26L

OCT26L

NOV26L

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (09-07)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

×1

Tom exposure

×1

Cash exposure

×1×1

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holder ≥50% on the books · lending guidance active If concentration and the inventory side ever align, the picture changes quickly. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on zincINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 50-80% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Tin SNRisk level Moderate Cancel 25.5%C-3M -339Cover 4.1× ▼ expand

Very thin absolute stock (5.3kt); structure is sensitive to any single participant

Closing stock

5.3 kt

+0.0k d/d · 1w -3.0%

On-warrant stock

4.0 kt

1M -21.4%38d low

Cancellation ratio

25.5%

1w +12.3pp38d #3 high

Cash–3M

-339.2

contango 0.62% · 1w -386.0

Off-warrant (T-3)

1.4 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M) (09-07)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs on-warrant stock (lots) · BANDS OCR + Bloomberg (09-07)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed on-warrant stock in lot-equivalent; shading = countdown to M1; ↺ = daily change unavailable

The cumulative public prompt-OI proxy through M1 (2026-09-16) is 3,269 lots ≈ 16kt — 4.1× on-warrant stock.

Futures position banding (09-07 · Bloomberg)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

SEP26L

OCT26L

111

NOV26L

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (09-07)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

×1

Tom exposure

×1

Cash exposure

×1

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holders present in the 30-50% bands In the escalation-watch zone; concentration and cancellation momentum will decide direction. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on tinINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 40-50% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Copper CURisk level Moderate Cancel 51.0%C-3M +33Cover 7.9× ▼ expand

“What do you deliver?” — cumulative public OI through M1 runs ~8× on-warrant stock, 5 trading days to M1

Closing stock

237.7 kt

+0.0k d/d · 1w +1.7%

On-warrant stock

116.5 kt

1M +23.6%

Cancellation ratio

51.0%

1w -0.1pp

Cash–3M

+32.7

back 0.22% · 1w +131.1

Off-warrant (T-3)

118.6 kt

> on-warrant · relief buffer

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M) (09-07)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs on-warrant stock (lots) · BANDS OCR + Bloomberg (09-07)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed on-warrant stock in lot-equivalent; shading = countdown to M1; ↺ = daily change unavailable

The cumulative public prompt-OI proxy through M1 (2026-09-16) is 36,994 lots ≈ 925kt — 7.9× on-warrant stock.

Futures position banding (09-07 · Bloomberg)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

SEP26L

OCT26L

NOV26L

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (09-07)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

No significant concentration in the Holdings report In the escalation-watch zone; concentration and cancellation momentum will decide direction. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on copperINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Aluminium ALRisk level Low Cancel 1.5%C-3M +4Cover 6.0× ▼ expand

Concentrated but capped by lending guidance; the inventory side stays loose

Closing stock

244.5 kt

+0.0k d/d · 1w -0.7%

On-warrant stock

240.8 kt

1M -1.6%39d low

Cancellation ratio

1.5%

1w -0.1pp

Cash–3M

+4.3

back 0.13% · 1w -1.4

Off-warrant (T-3)

95.1 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M) (09-07)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs on-warrant stock (lots) · BANDS OCR + Bloomberg (09-07)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed on-warrant stock in lot-equivalent; shading = countdown to M1; ↺ = daily change unavailable

The cumulative public prompt-OI proxy through M1 (2026-09-16) is 58,072 lots ≈ 1,452kt — 6.0× on-warrant stock.

Futures position banding (09-07 · Bloomberg)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

SEP26L

OCT26L

NOV26L

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (09-07)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

×1

Tom exposure

×1

Cash exposure

×1

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

Holders present in the 30-50% bands Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on aluminiumINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingDays on the 30-40% band, and the migration pathINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Nickel NIRisk level Low Cancel 5.1%C-3M -145Cover 1.0× ▼ expand

Loose across the board; the import window remains closed after cross-checking

Closing stock

271.0 kt

+0.0k d/d · 1w +0.8%

On-warrant stock

257.3 kt

1M +0.5%

Cancellation ratio

5.1%

1w +1.3pp

Cash–3M

-144.6

contango 0.86% · 1w -165.439d #2 high

Off-warrant (T-3)

100.0 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M) (09-07)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs on-warrant stock (lots) · BANDS OCR + Bloomberg (09-07)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed on-warrant stock in lot-equivalent; shading = countdown to M1; ↺ = daily change unavailable

The cumulative public prompt-OI proxy through M1 (2026-09-16) is 44,932 lots ≈ 270kt — 1.0× on-warrant stock.

Futures position banding (09-07 · Bloomberg)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

SEP26L

411

OCT26L

NOV26L

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (09-07)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

No significant concentration in the Holdings report Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on nickelINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Lead PBRisk level Low Cancel 10.1%C-3M -38Cover 1.6× ▼ expand

Loose on both ends

Closing stock

385.1 kt

+0.0k d/d · 1w -3.6%

On-warrant stock

346.1 kt

1M -4.3%

Cancellation ratio

10.1%

1w -1.0pp

Cash–3M

-38.0

contango 2.02% · 1w -30.0

Off-warrant (T-3)

56.7 kt

below on-warrant

Stock structure (1M, daily)

Stack = closing stock

On-warrantCancelled

Cancellation ratio (1M)

cancelled ÷ closing stock

Cash–3M spread (1M)

Positive = backwardation; T-1

MOC front curve (to +3M) (09-07)

By prompt date; downward slope = backwardation

The delivery horizon — prompt OI vs on-warrant stock (lots) · BANDS OCR + Bloomberg (09-07)

Every prompt at its true calendar date; needles above the red line exceed on-warrant stock in lot-equivalent; shading = countdown to M1; ↺ = daily change unavailable

The cumulative public prompt-OI proxy through M1 (2026-09-16) is 21,781 lots ≈ 545kt — 1.6× on-warrant stock.

Futures position banding (09-07 · Bloomberg)

Band scale: occupied segments light up; further right = more concentrated

5-9%10-19%20-29%30-39%40%+

SEP26L

OCT26L

NOV26L

Cell value = number of holders in that band (as of the data date). The further right the longs sit, the stronger the potential pull on the front of the curve.

Warrant / Tom / Cash holdings concentration (09-07)

The closer to the red line, the closer to the mandatory-lending zone

▲ 50% lending-guidance line

30-40%40-50%50-80%80-90%90%+

Warrant holdings

Tom exposure

Cash exposure

Crossing the red line triggers the LME lending-guidance obligation (50-80%: lend tom-next at ≤0.5% of cash/day; 80-90%: ≤0.25%; 90%+: at level).

No significant concentration in the Holdings report Loose on every dimension; nothing on the near-term watch list. Structural observations only; not investment advice.

INTERNAL-EDITION SECTIONS

Desk viewSame-day desk read and risk flags on leadINTERNAL

Score decomposition & watch levelsWhat builds the composite score — and the trigger levelsINTERNAL

Day-by-day band trackingBand migration path and persistenceINTERNAL

Unlock the internal edition →

Methodology & Data Notes

Squeeze-risk score (0–100, rule-based)

The score aggregates five structural dimensions — concentration, a cumulative public OI proxy through M1, momentum and spread confirmation among them — under fixed, auditable rules. Dimension definitions, weights and trigger levels are internal-edition content; the public edition shows risk levels and direction only.

LME Tom-Next lending rules

Position*	Max tom-next lending premium
50–79.99%	0.5% of prior cash price
80–89.99%	0.25% of prior cash price
90–100%	At level (no premium)

* Warrants + Tom + Cash ÷ live warrants. Tightness without a ≥50% holder has no such cap on the spread.

LME Front Month Lending Rules (effective 17 Mar 2026)

Cumulative Spot Futures Position / Total Available Stock	Maximum M1 lending premium
50–79.99%	3% of prior M1 official close
80–89.99%	1.5%
90–100%	At level

LME Notice 26/049. The official ratio needs member/client cumulative net positions and Total Available Stock, neither reproducible from public data. This report's all-market prompt OI through M1 divided by on-warrant stock is a conservative public proxy, not the official ratio or a breach test.

Data chain & lags

Reports are archived at 06:30 SGT. The workflow allows a measured 75-minute source buffer and starts at 19:30 SGT (the release guard defers winter runs to 20:15), retrying every 15 minutes through 23:30. Banding, Holdings, and OI each use and independently validate the Data Date printed on their source report; stocks/prices are T-1, while off-warrant stock is a T-3 voluntary disclosure and a floor estimate.

Data quality

This issue's sentinels: 0 missing OI rows backfilled from the prior snapshot (dashed in charts), 1 low-confidence banding rows flagged, 2 curve outliers excluded, 1 stock row(s) dropped on internal-consistency checks. A stock row that fails internal consistency (on-warrant + cancelled must equal total) is treated as an upstream OCR column shift and dropped in full for that date. Nothing unreliable is silently kept.

Disclaimer

This report is market-structure research for reference only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation; you act on it at your own risk. Built on official LME publications (T+2 lag); contains no real-time prices; no warranty is given as to accuracy, completeness or timeliness.

Copyright & redistribution

© 2026 BW Research. All rights reserved. The analytical framework, scoring system, charts and text are original works of BW Research protected by copyright. No reproduction, excerpting, redistribution, mirroring or commercial use without prior written permission; cite metalsgowhere.com when referencing. LME data remains the property of The London Metal Exchange.

INTERNAL EDITION · Beyond this public edition, the daily adds

Desk view

Same-day desk read and risk flags on all six metals

Strategy playbook

A full direction / structure / execution framework, risk-tiered

Score decomposition

Item-by-item breakdown of each 0-100 score, with watch levels

Band tracking

Daily migration across Banding / Holdings bands, with persistence

Data sentinels

Full transparency on OCR repairs, outliers and methodology notes

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Metals Go Where · 2026-09-09 · Built on official LME publications · Research only; not investment advice · Silver Market Structure Monitor → · © 2026 BW Research — all rights reserved; no redistribution without permission

BW Research · metalsgowhere.com

Metals Go Where2026-09-09

The Main Tension