METALSGOWHERE ATLAS · SUPPLY RESEARCH
Copper mine supply disruptions
As of 2026-11-03 · Observation periods are shown separately.
As of 2026-11-03
2.49% of 2024 world mine output
What makes up the YTD total
Mine-production impact: estimates and disclosures · Each bar is a share of the same YTD total.
Production and guidance records for Grasberg and Las Bambas are on their own project pages.
Event status and periods
Event periods, not measured daily losses. Full source dates appear beneath each lane.
Counted this year
- Grasberg mud rush: suspension and phased restart
2025-09-08 → ongoing
- Kakula seismic event: reduced 2026–2027 mine plan
2026-01-01 → ongoing
- Kamoa-Kakula July 2026 strike
2026-07-01 → 2026-07-31
- Las Bambas precautionary suspension, 18–21 August 2026
2026-08-18 → 2026-08-21
- Escondida suspension after fatal accident, 23–25 September 2026
2026-09-23 → 2026-09-25
Confirmed, not yet quantified
- El Teniente accident and partial restart, 2025
Outside this YTD window
2025-07-31 → 2025-09-30
Earlier structural halts · excluded (1)
- Cobre Panamá: operations halted since November 2023
2023-11-28 → ongoing
Ended strikes · no counted production loss (1)
- Centinela union strike from 7 October 2026
2026-10-07 → 2026-10-18
Current conditions
- Current annualised impact
- 658.2 kt
- Ongoing events
- 2
- Annualised rate vs reference assumption
- below 5%
The annualised figure is a current rate, not a full-year forecast. Do not add it to the YTD total.
The 5% reference is a comparison assumption, not an observed disruption threshold or forecast.
As of 2026-11-03 · Denominator: 23.00 Mt · USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, world mine production 2024, metal content
Counted this year
Swipe horizontally to see the full table.
| Event | Period | Confirmation and quantity basis | YTD impact | Annualised if ongoing | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grasberg mud rush: suspension and phased restart | 2025-09-08 → ongoing | Confirmed, in force Model estimate | 342.0 kt | 407.9 kt | Primary source |
| Kakula seismic event: reduced 2026–2027 mine plan | 2026-01-01 → ongoing | Confirmed, in force Model estimate | 209.8 kt | 250.2 kt | Primary source |
| Kamoa-Kakula July 2026 strike | 2026-07-01 → 2026-07-31 | Resumed Disclosed impact | 10.0 kt | — | Primary source |
| Las Bambas precautionary suspension, 18–21 August 2026 | 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-21 | Resumed Model estimate | 3.4 kt | — | Primary source |
| Escondida suspension after fatal accident, 23–25 September 2026 | 2026-09-23 → 2026-09-25 | Resumed Model estimate | 6.9 kt | — | Primary source |
Structural halts begun before last year
Shown for context; not in the year-to-date figure.
Swipe horizontally to see the full table.
| Event | Period | Confirmation and quantity basis | YTD impact | Annualised if ongoing | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cobre Panamá: operations halted since November 2023 | 2023-11-28 → ongoing | Confirmed, in force Model estimate | 277.4 kt | 330.9 kt | Primary source |
Confirmed, not yet quantified
Swipe horizontally to see the full table.
| Event | Period | Confirmation and quantity basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Teniente accident and partial restart, 2025 | 2025-07-31 → 2025-09-30 | Resumed Quantity not disclosed | Primary source |
Ended strikes with no counted production loss
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| Event | Period | Confirmation and quantity basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Centinela union strike from 7 October 2026 | 2026-10-07 → 2026-10-18 | Strike ended Model estimate | Primary source |
Recent months
Recalculated using current information · YTD impact at each month end, or the date shown above for the current month. Not a then-known forecast; YTD resets in January.
- 2026-09510.8 kt
- 2026-10566.7 kt
- 2026-11572.1 kt
Swipe horizontally to see the full table.
| Month | YTD impact | Share of reference-year world output | Annualised impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | 510.8 kt | 2.22% | 658.2 kt |
| 2026-10 | 566.7 kt | 2.46% | 658.2 kt |
| 2026-11 | 572.1 kt | 2.49% | 658.2 kt |
How this is counted
- Confirmation refers to the event, not to measured lost tonnes. Quantity rows distinguish model estimates from company-disclosed impacts; media-only reports are shown separately.
- Estimated impact = annual production basis ÷ 365 × affected share × days in force. It stops accruing on the disclosed restart or restriction end date; this is not observed market shortage.
- Structural halts that began before last year are listed separately and kept out of the year-to-date figure; smelter-side events are listed separately from mine-side events.
- The denominator is world mine production in the explicitly stated USGS reference year. Cobalt compares an export-quota restriction with the production baseline: it is not mine output lost, a stock change or measured export shortfall.
- Current annualised impact is a rate at today's conditions, not a full-year forecast. Do not add it to the year-to-date quantity.
Source: metalsgowhere.com, as of 2026-11-03. Citation & data use